Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure
The relationship between employment and economic growth is of great interest to the economic literature. Although the procyclicality of employment is well known, estimates of elasticities for countries such as Argentina are scarce. Using an autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL), this paper...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
| Published: |
Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba.
2022
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/37682 |
| _version_ | 1839026236643344384 |
|---|---|
| author | Trombetta, Martin Duarte Baracat, Agustín Menduiña, Azul |
| author_facet | Trombetta, Martin Duarte Baracat, Agustín Menduiña, Azul |
| author_sort | Trombetta, Martin |
| collection | Portal de Revistas |
| description | The relationship between employment and economic growth is of great interest to the economic literature. Although the procyclicality of employment is well known, estimates of elasticities for countries such as Argentina are scarce. Using an autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL), this paper estimates the elasticity of formal employment with respect to output and the real exchange rate from administrative records for the period 2007-2019. The results indicate procyclicality is small in the short run but considerable in the long run. Additionally, when dividing employment into productive sectors (following two different levels of disaggregation), we find non-trivial sectoral patterns that point to the importance of the productive structure in the generation of formal employment. The sensitivity to the exchange rate, although small at the aggregate level, adopts relevant values in sectors whose productive insertion makes them typically net exporters or importers. Finally, we provide evidence of different elasticities according to the size of the firms and the sign of the movements in output.
Reception date: 19/05/2022Acceptance date: 15/07/2022 |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-37682 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-376822023-08-02T20:15:12Z Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure Crecimiento económico, empleo formal y estructura productiva Trombetta, Martin Duarte Baracat, Agustín Menduiña, Azul employment-output elasticity productive structure employment-exchange rate elasticity ARDL Time Series E24 C22 elasticidad empleo-producto estructura productiva elasticidad empleo-tipo de cambio ARDL Series de tiempo E24 C22 The relationship between employment and economic growth is of great interest to the economic literature. Although the procyclicality of employment is well known, estimates of elasticities for countries such as Argentina are scarce. Using an autoregressive distributed lagged model (ARDL), this paper estimates the elasticity of formal employment with respect to output and the real exchange rate from administrative records for the period 2007-2019. The results indicate procyclicality is small in the short run but considerable in the long run. Additionally, when dividing employment into productive sectors (following two different levels of disaggregation), we find non-trivial sectoral patterns that point to the importance of the productive structure in the generation of formal employment. The sensitivity to the exchange rate, although small at the aggregate level, adopts relevant values in sectors whose productive insertion makes them typically net exporters or importers. Finally, we provide evidence of different elasticities according to the size of the firms and the sign of the movements in output. Reception date: 19/05/2022Acceptance date: 15/07/2022 La relación entre empleo y crecimiento económico reviste gran interés para la literatura económica. Si bien la prociclicidad del empleo es materia conocida, las estimaciones de elasticidades para países como Argentina son escasas. Empleando un modelo autorregresivo de rezagos distribuidos (ARDL), este trabajo estima la elasticidad del empleo formal respecto del producto y del tipo de cambio real a partir de registros administrativos para el período 2007-2019. Los resultados indican una prociclicidad pequeña en el corto plazo pero considerable en el largo plazo. Adicionalmente, al dividir el empleo en sectores productivos (siguiendo dos niveles de desagregación diferentes), se observan patrones sectoriales no triviales que señalan la importancia de la estructura productiva en la generación de empleo formal. La sensibilidad al tipo de cambio, aunque pequeña a nivel agregado, adopta valores relevantes en sectores cuya inserción productiva los hace típicamente exportadores o importadores netos. Por último, se provee evidencia de distintas elasticidades según el tamaño de las firmas y el signo de los movimientos en el producto. Fecha de recepción: 19/05/2022Fecha de aceptación: 15/07/2022 Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba. 2022-12-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf text/html https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/37682 10.55444/2451.7321.2022.v60.n1.37682 Revista de Economía y Estadística; Vol. 60 No. 1 (2022); 107-144 Revista de Economía y Estadística; Vol. 60 Núm. 1 (2022); 107-144 2451-7321 0034-8066 10.55444/2451.7321.2022.v60.n1 spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/37682/40278 https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/37682/42263 Derechos de autor 2022 Martin Trombetta, Agustín Duarte Baracat, Azul Menduiña http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | employment-output elasticity productive structure employment-exchange rate elasticity ARDL Time Series E24 C22 elasticidad empleo-producto estructura productiva elasticidad empleo-tipo de cambio ARDL Series de tiempo E24 C22 Trombetta, Martin Duarte Baracat, Agustín Menduiña, Azul Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title | Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title_alt | Crecimiento económico, empleo formal y estructura productiva |
| title_full | Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title_fullStr | Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title_short | Economic growth, formal employment and productive structure |
| title_sort | economic growth formal employment and productive structure |
| topic | employment-output elasticity productive structure employment-exchange rate elasticity ARDL Time Series E24 C22 elasticidad empleo-producto estructura productiva elasticidad empleo-tipo de cambio ARDL Series de tiempo E24 C22 |
| topic_facet | employment-output elasticity productive structure employment-exchange rate elasticity ARDL Time Series E24 C22 elasticidad empleo-producto estructura productiva elasticidad empleo-tipo de cambio ARDL Series de tiempo E24 C22 |
| url | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/37682 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT trombettamartin economicgrowthformalemploymentandproductivestructure AT duartebaracatagustin economicgrowthformalemploymentandproductivestructure AT menduinaazul economicgrowthformalemploymentandproductivestructure AT trombettamartin crecimientoeconomicoempleoformalyestructuraproductiva AT duartebaracatagustin crecimientoeconomicoempleoformalyestructuraproductiva AT menduinaazul crecimientoeconomicoempleoformalyestructuraproductiva |