Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans
This article aims to cast doubt on the generalized idea that failures when implementing stabilization plans or the materialization of a balance of payment crisis are the inevitable ending of a determined macroeconomic trajectory. To support the statement, we introduce the theoretical concept of mult...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | spa |
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas
2020
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/30504 |
| _version_ | 1841853735772356608 |
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| author | Oviedo, Nicolás Oviedo, Nicolás |
| author_facet | Oviedo, Nicolás Oviedo, Nicolás |
| author_sort | Oviedo, Nicolás |
| collection | Portal de Revistas |
| description | This article aims to cast doubt on the generalized idea that failures when implementing stabilization plans or the materialization of a balance of payment crisis are the inevitable ending of a determined macroeconomic trajectory. To support the statement, we introduce the theoretical concept of multiple equilibria. Moreover, we briefly review learned lessons over recent stabilization experiments in Latin America. Balance of payment disequilibria, increasing stocks of sovereign debt and financial vulnerability generally lead a given economy into a multiple equilibria scenario. The instantiation of a certain outcome will depend on agents’ expectations and whether shocks that coordinate expectations (sunspots) hit or not the economy. A second generation of balance-of-payment-crises, such as the one portraited by Maurice Obstfeld, analytically capture our main point. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-30504 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2020 |
| publisher | Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-305042022-08-22T02:54:21Z Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans Equilibrios múltiples, crisis externas y programas de estabilización Oviedo, Nicolás Oviedo, Nicolás multiple equilibria econd-generation crises balance of payments equilibrios múltiples balanza de pagos crisis externa This article aims to cast doubt on the generalized idea that failures when implementing stabilization plans or the materialization of a balance of payment crisis are the inevitable ending of a determined macroeconomic trajectory. To support the statement, we introduce the theoretical concept of multiple equilibria. Moreover, we briefly review learned lessons over recent stabilization experiments in Latin America. Balance of payment disequilibria, increasing stocks of sovereign debt and financial vulnerability generally lead a given economy into a multiple equilibria scenario. The instantiation of a certain outcome will depend on agents’ expectations and whether shocks that coordinate expectations (sunspots) hit or not the economy. A second generation of balance-of-payment-crises, such as the one portraited by Maurice Obstfeld, analytically capture our main point. En este artículo, discutimos la idea de que los programas de estabilización que fracasan o el estallido de crisis externas son la desembocadura de una trayectoria macroeconómica unívocamente determinada. Para ello, apelamos a la noción teórica de equilibrio múltiple y a un breve repaso de las lecciones aprendidas en experiencias latinoamericanas de estabilización. Los desequilibrios en las cuentas externas, la acumulación de deuda en moneda extranjera y la fragilidad financiera en general pueden poner a una economía en situación de multiplicidad de equilibrios. El resultado que se concrete dependerá de las expectativas de ciertos agentes, del advenimiento de shocks o bien de la realización o no de eventos aleatorios que coordinen conductas. Los modelos de crisis de balanzas de pagos de segunda generación reflejan formalmente nuestro argumento. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas 2020-10-08 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Articles Artículos application/pdf https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/30504 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 30 No. 101 (2020): May-August; 17-27 Actualidad Económica; Vol. 30 Núm. 101 (2020): Mayo-Agosto; 17-27 2250-754X 0327-585X spa https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/30504/31290 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | multiple equilibria econd-generation crises balance of payments equilibrios múltiples balanza de pagos crisis externa Oviedo, Nicolás Oviedo, Nicolás Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title | Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title_alt | Equilibrios múltiples, crisis externas y programas de estabilización |
| title_full | Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title_fullStr | Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title_short | Multiple equilibria, Balance of Payment crises and stabilization plans |
| title_sort | multiple equilibria balance of payment crises and stabilization plans |
| topic | multiple equilibria econd-generation crises balance of payments equilibrios múltiples balanza de pagos crisis externa |
| topic_facet | multiple equilibria econd-generation crises balance of payments equilibrios múltiples balanza de pagos crisis externa |
| url | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/acteconomica/article/view/30504 |
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