Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model
Fil: Meisel, José. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
2025
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/557298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39921 |
| _version_ | 1841742282369269760 |
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| author | Meisel, José Esguerra, Valentina Pérez Ferrer, Carolina Stankov, Ivana Montes, Felipe Tumas, Natalia Bilal, Usama Valdivia, Juan A. Diez Roux, Ana Victoria Sarmiento, Olga L. |
| author2 | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-0900 |
| author_facet | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-0900 Meisel, José Esguerra, Valentina Pérez Ferrer, Carolina Stankov, Ivana Montes, Felipe Tumas, Natalia Bilal, Usama Valdivia, Juan A. Diez Roux, Ana Victoria Sarmiento, Olga L. |
| author_sort | Meisel, José |
| collection | Repositorio Digital Universitario |
| description | Fil: Meisel, José. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia. |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
| id | rdu-unc.557298 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | rdu-unc.5572982025-08-27T15:17:51Z Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model Meisel, José Esguerra, Valentina Pérez Ferrer, Carolina Stankov, Ivana Montes, Felipe Tumas, Natalia Bilal, Usama Valdivia, Juan A. Diez Roux, Ana Victoria Sarmiento, Olga L. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1032-0900 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4732-3555 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9232-2749 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9923-4004 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4730-6624 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9868-7773 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3381-9904 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9658-7050 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9190-3568 Complex systems Epidemiology Obesity transition Public health System dynamics model System science info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Fil: Meisel, José. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia. Fil: Esguerra, Valentina. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia. Fil: Pérez Ferrer, Carolina. Secretaría de Salud de México. Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública; México. Fil: Stankov, Ivana. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Montes, Felipe. Universidad de los Andes. Centro de Complejidad Social y de la Salud. Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial; Colombia. Fil: Tumas, Natalia. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales; Argentina. Fil: Tumas, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad; Argentina. Fil: Bilal, Usama. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Valdivia, Juan A. Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Ciencia. Departamento de Física; Chile. Fil: Diez Roux, Ana Victoria. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Sarmiento, Olga L. Universidad de los Andes. Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Salud Pública; Colombia. Purpose This paper aims to enrich understanding of the obesity transition among socioeconomic status (SES) strata by gender and age in cities of Colombia and Mexico. The study uses harmonized data from the Salud Urbana en América Latina (SALURBAL) study. Methods: A population-level system dynamics model was developed using 2010 and 2015 data from Colombia and 2012 and 2016 data from Mexico (national health surveys). The model simulates the prevalence of different BMI categories (i.e., not overweight, overweight, obese) stratified by gender, age, and SES, in the SALURBAL cities (aggregated to the country level) of Colombia and Mexico from 2010 to 2050. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2010 and Mexico in 2012 were 7420 and 5785 children (<5 years), 21601 and 14413 children and adolescents (5–17 years), and 46597 and 20464 adults (18–64 years), respectively. Sample sizes for Colombia in 2015 and Mexico in 2016 were 4450 and 907 children, 12468 and 2350 children and adolescents, and 90430 and 3413 adults, respectively. Results For men in Colombia and Mexico, the burden of obesity is projected to increase among lower SES adults over time. Colombian women show similar patterns observed in men but the burden of obesity was already greater in the lower SES groups as early as 2012. In Mexican women, the burden of obesity in 2012 is higher in the lower SES population; however, the prevalence of obesity is projected to increase at a faster rate in the higher SES population. Patterns for children aged 0–14 years differed by gender and country. Conclusions The model suggests that the prevalence of obesity among SES strata by age and gender in SALURBAL cities of Colombia and Mexico are likely to change over time, and predicts their possible evolution through the different stages of the obesity transition. info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Fil: Meisel, José. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia. Fil: Esguerra, Valentina. Universidad de Ibagué. Facultad de Ingeniería; Colombia. Fil: Pérez Ferrer, Carolina. Secretaría de Salud de México. Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública; México. Fil: Stankov, Ivana. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Montes, Felipe. Universidad de los Andes. Centro de Complejidad Social y de la Salud. Departamento de Ingeniería Industrial; Colombia. Fil: Tumas, Natalia. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales; Argentina. Fil: Tumas, Natalia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Cultura y Sociedad; Argentina. Fil: Bilal, Usama. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Valdivia, Juan A. Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Ciencia. Departamento de Física; Chile. Fil: Diez Roux, Ana Victoria. Universidad de Drexel. Escuela de Salud Pública Dornsife; Estados Unidos. Fil: Sarmiento, Olga L. Universidad de los Andes. Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Salud Pública; Colombia. 2025-08-27T14:24:17Z 2025-08-27T14:24:17Z 2024-11 article Meisel, Jose D.; Esguerra, Valentina; Pérez Ferrer, Carolina; Stankov, Ivana; Montes, Felipe; et al.; Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model; Elsevier Science London; Heliyon; 10; 22; 11-2024; 1-15 http://hdl.handle.net/11086/557298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39921 eng Licencia Creative Commons Atribución 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| spellingShingle | Complex systems Epidemiology Obesity transition Public health System dynamics model System science Meisel, José Esguerra, Valentina Pérez Ferrer, Carolina Stankov, Ivana Montes, Felipe Tumas, Natalia Bilal, Usama Valdivia, Juan A. Diez Roux, Ana Victoria Sarmiento, Olga L. Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title | Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title_full | Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title_fullStr | Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title_short | Understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in Colombian and Mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| title_sort | understanding the obesity dynamics by socioeconomic status in colombian and mexican cities using a system dynamics model |
| topic | Complex systems Epidemiology Obesity transition Public health System dynamics model System science |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/557298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39921 |
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