What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot
Factor de Impacto 5.8
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| Language: | spa |
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2024
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6 |
| _version_ | 1806012190585520128 |
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| author | Levers, Christian Piquer-Rodríguez, María Gollnow, Florian Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio De Waroux, Yann le Polain Müller, Daniel Nori, Javier |
| author2 | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-9024 |
| author_facet | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-9024 Levers, Christian Piquer-Rodríguez, María Gollnow, Florian Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio De Waroux, Yann le Polain Müller, Daniel Nori, Javier |
| author_sort | Levers, Christian |
| collection | Repositorio Digital Universitario |
| description | Factor de Impacto 5.8 |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| id | rdu-unc.552708 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | spa |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | rdu-unc.5527082024-07-23T06:19:27Z What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot Levers, Christian Piquer-Rodríguez, María Gollnow, Florian Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio De Waroux, Yann le Polain Müller, Daniel Nori, Javier https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4810-9024 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8181-5049 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6314-1877 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2375-3622 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7375-6277 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-1379 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3239-0595 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8988-0718 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7127-7934 Land-use change Future scenarios Tropical dry forests and savannas Forest-dependent people Indigenous communities Impact assessments Social-ecological archetypes Factor de Impacto 5.8 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands. Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany. Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden. Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina. Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina. Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina. Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina. Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina. Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá. Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany. Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina. Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina. Abstract Commodity agriculture continues to spread into tropical dry forests globally, eroding their social-ecological integrity. Understanding where deforestation frontiers expand, and which impacts this process triggers, is thus important for sustainability planning. We reconstructed past land-system change (1985–2015) and simulated alternative land-system futures (2015–2045) for the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 global deforestation hotspot with high biological and cultural diversity. We co-developed nine plausible future land-system scenarios, consisting of three contrasting policy narratives (Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration) and three agricultural expansion rates (high, medium, and low). We assessed the social-ecological impacts of our scenarios by comparing them with current biodiversity, carbon density, and areas used by forest-dependent people. Our analyses revealed four major insights. First, intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and remaining natural vegetation have replaced large swaths of woodland since 1985. Second, simulated land-system futures until 2045 revealed potential hotspots of natural vegetation loss (e.g. western and southern Argentinian Chaco, western Paraguayan Chaco), both due to the continued expansion of existing agricultural frontiers and the emergence of new ones. Third, the strongest social-ecological impacts were consistently connected to the Agribusiness scenarios, while impacts were lower for the Ecomodernism and Integration scenarios. Scenarios based on our Integration narrative led to lower social impacts, while Ecomodernism had lower ecological impacts. Fourth, comparing recent land change with our simulations showed that 10% of the Chaco is on a pathway consistent with our Agribusiness narrative, associated with adverse social-ecological impacts. Our results highlight that much is still at stake in the Chaco. Stricter land-use and conservation planning are urgently needed to avoid adverse social-ecological outcomes, and our results charting the option space of plausible land-system futures can support such planning. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Levers, Christian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Levers, Christian. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Institute for Environmental Studies. Department of Environmental Geography; Netherlands. Fil: Levers, Christian. Institute Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry, and Fisheries. Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, Johann Heinrich von Thünen, Braunschweig; Germany. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Piquer-Rodríguez, María. Freie Universität Berlin. Institute of Geographical Sciences; Germany. Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Gollnow, Florian. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; Sweden. Fil: Baumann, Matthias. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Camino, Micaela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Ecología Aplicada del Litoral (Corrientes); Argentina. Fil: Camino, Micaela. Universidad Nacional del Nordeste, Corrientes; Argentina. Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina. Fil: Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales; Argentina. Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Instituto de Fisiología y Recursos Genéticos Vegetales (IFRGV); Argentina. Fil: Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Unidad de Estudios Agropecuarios; Argentina. Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill Universit. Department of Geography; Canadá. Fil: De Waroux, Yann le Polain. McGill University. Institute for the Study of International Development; Canadá. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Geography Department; Germany. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); Germany. Fil: Müller, Daniel. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems; Germany. Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA); Argentina. Fil: Nori, Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Nori, Javier. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Zoología Aplicada; Argentina. 2024-07-12T12:54:59Z 2024-07-12T12:54:59Z 2024-05-09 article Levers, C., Piquer-Rodríguez, M., Gollnow, F., Baumann, M., Camino, M., Gasparri, N. I., ... & Kuemmerle, T. (2024). What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6), 064003. 1748-9326 http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6 spa Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| spellingShingle | Land-use change Future scenarios Tropical dry forests and savannas Forest-dependent people Indigenous communities Impact assessments Social-ecological archetypes Levers, Christian Piquer-Rodríguez, María Gollnow, Florian Baumann, Matthias Camino, Micaela Gasparri, Nestor Ignacio Gavier-Pizarro, Gregorio Ignacio De Waroux, Yann le Polain Müller, Daniel Nori, Javier What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title | What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title_full | What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title_fullStr | What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title_full_unstemmed | What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title_short | What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? Social-ecological impacts of alternative land-system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| title_sort | what is still at stake in the gran chaco social ecological impacts of alternative land system futures in a global deforestation hotspot |
| topic | Land-use change Future scenarios Tropical dry forests and savannas Forest-dependent people Indigenous communities Impact assessments Social-ecological archetypes |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552708 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad44b6 |
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