Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5
Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552549 |
| _version_ | 1806012314711752704 |
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| author | Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos Pinto Júnior, Osmar Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Lima, Francisco José Lopes de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Débora Analía |
| author2 | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7736-7818 |
| author_facet | https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7736-7818 Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos Pinto Júnior, Osmar Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Lima, Francisco José Lopes de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Débora Analía |
| author_sort | Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos |
| collection | Repositorio Digital Universitario |
| description | Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. |
| format | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
| id | rdu-unc.552549 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | rdu-unc.5525492024-07-04T12:53:02Z Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos Pinto Júnior, Osmar Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Lima, Francisco José Lopes de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Débora Analía https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7736-7818 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4651-1741 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8269-4805 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-0984 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6313-9868 Lightning Climatic projections Southeastern Brazil info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil. Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina. Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina. Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Brazil and the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to society, there is a growing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its consequences. In this context, this work presents the development of a methodology for the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Brazil), using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climate change scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output variable of climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship between the observed data of oceanic and atmospheric fields, which are known as outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT detection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the projections, it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current climate we observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in the scenario of intermediate-low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of high emissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning incidence in the State of São Paulo. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Fil: Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Pinto Júnior, Osmar. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Lima, Francisco José Lopes de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de. Vale Institute of Technology; Brazil. Fil: Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de. National Institute for Space Research; Brazil. Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina. Fil: Ávila, Eldo Edgardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Fil: Pedernera, Débora Analía. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Matemática, Astronomía, Física y Computación; Argentina. Investigación Climatológica 2024-07-04T12:36:06Z 2024-07-04T12:36:06Z 2017 article Santos, A. P. P., Pinto Júnior, O., Santos, S. R. Q., Lima, F. J. L., Souza, E. B., Morais, A. A. R., Ávila, E. E. y Pedernera, D. A. (2017). Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. American Journal of Climate Change, 6 (3), 539-553. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027 2167-9495 http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552549 2167-9509 eng Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Impreso; Electrónico y/o Digital |
| spellingShingle | Lightning Climatic projections Southeastern Brazil Santos, Ana Paula Paes dos Pinto Júnior, Osmar Santos, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Lima, Francisco José Lopes de Souza, Everaldo Barreiros de Morais, André Arruda Rodrigues de Avila, Eldo Edgardo Pedernera, Débora Analía Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title | Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title_full | Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title_fullStr | Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title_short | Climatic projections of lightning in southeastern Brazil using CMIP5 models in RCP’s scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 |
| title_sort | climatic projections of lightning in southeastern brazil using cmip5 models in rcp s scenarios 4 5 and 8 5 |
| topic | Lightning Climatic projections Southeastern Brazil |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/11086/552549 |
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