Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries
This paper demonstrates that the choice between alternative definitions of current account reversal suggested in the literature does matter for the identification of the frequency and dating of reversals. Using variables suggested by the solvency hypothesis three models of a random effect probity ar...
| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Online |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba.
2012
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/10253 |
| _version_ | 1811172127719555072 |
|---|---|
| author | Barone, Sergio Descalzi, Ricardo Díaz Cafferata, Alberto M. |
| author_facet | Barone, Sergio Descalzi, Ricardo Díaz Cafferata, Alberto M. |
| author_sort | Barone, Sergio |
| collection | Portal de Revistas |
| description | This paper demonstrates that the choice between alternative definitions of current account reversal suggested in the literature does matter for the identification of the frequency and dating of reversals. Using variables suggested by the solvency hypothesis three models of a random effect probity are estimated, and the results are compared to highlight the role of the statistical identification of “reversal” used in the exercise. Growth, exports, and changes in terms of trade, are significant, and have the expected signs. The results highlight both the critical role of trade variables in the genesis of reversals and that the choice of definition matters for the sign and significance of determinants. |
| format | Online |
| id | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-10253 |
| institution | Universidad Nacional de Cordoba |
| language | eng |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba. |
| record_format | ojs |
| spelling | oai:ojs.revistas.unc.edu.ar:article-102532022-04-06T22:33:14Z Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries Las variables comerciales y las "reversiones" de cuenta corriente: ¿La elección de la defi nición importa? Una aplicación para los países de América Latina Barone, Sergio Descalzi, Ricardo Díaz Cafferata, Alberto M. current account debt reversal probit comparison F32 F34 cuenta corriente reversión deuda externa probit comparación F32 F34 This paper demonstrates that the choice between alternative definitions of current account reversal suggested in the literature does matter for the identification of the frequency and dating of reversals. Using variables suggested by the solvency hypothesis three models of a random effect probity are estimated, and the results are compared to highlight the role of the statistical identification of “reversal” used in the exercise. Growth, exports, and changes in terms of trade, are significant, and have the expected signs. The results highlight both the critical role of trade variables in the genesis of reversals and that the choice of definition matters for the sign and significance of determinants. Una reversión de la cuenta corriente es, en general, un cambio brusco, sustancial y sostenido del déficit, pero existen diversas propiedades estadísticas para su identificación empírica. En este trabajo se muestra que la elección entre definiciones específicas de reversión de la cuenta corriente usualmente utilizadas en la literatura modifica tanto el momento del tiempo en que se detecta la reversión, como el número de eventos en el período bajo estudio. Para mostrar de qué manera la definición afecta la identificación de las variables que causan la reversión, se estima un modelo probit de efectos aleatorios con tres definiciones alternativas y se comparan sus resultados. Instituto de Economía y Finanzas. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Universidada Nacional de Córdoba. 2012-12-01 info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion application/pdf https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/10253 10.55444/2451.7321.2012.v50.n1.10253 Revista de Economía y Estadística; Vol. 50 No. 1 (2012); 123-141 Revista de Economía y Estadística; Vol. 50 Núm. 1 (2012); 123-141 2451-7321 0034-8066 10.55444/2451.7321.2012.v50.n1 eng https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/10253/12219 Derechos de autor 2012 Sergio Barone, Ricardo Descalzi, Alberto M. Díaz Cafferata http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 |
| spellingShingle | current account debt reversal probit comparison F32 F34 cuenta corriente reversión deuda externa probit comparación F32 F34 Barone, Sergio Descalzi, Ricardo Díaz Cafferata, Alberto M. Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title | Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title_alt | Las variables comerciales y las "reversiones" de cuenta corriente: ¿La elección de la defi nición importa? Una aplicación para los países de América Latina |
| title_full | Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title_fullStr | Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title_full_unstemmed | Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title_short | Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries |
| title_sort | trade variables and current account reversals does the choice of definition matter an application to latin american countries |
| topic | current account debt reversal probit comparison F32 F34 cuenta corriente reversión deuda externa probit comparación F32 F34 |
| topic_facet | current account debt reversal probit comparison F32 F34 cuenta corriente reversión deuda externa probit comparación F32 F34 |
| url | https://revistas.unc.edu.ar/index.php/REyE/article/view/10253 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT baronesergio tradevariablesandcurrentaccountreversalsdoesthechoiceofdefinitionmatteranapplicationtolatinamericancountries AT descalziricardo tradevariablesandcurrentaccountreversalsdoesthechoiceofdefinitionmatteranapplicationtolatinamericancountries AT diazcafferataalbertom tradevariablesandcurrentaccountreversalsdoesthechoiceofdefinitionmatteranapplicationtolatinamericancountries AT baronesergio lasvariablescomercialesylasreversionesdecuentacorrientelaelecciondeladefinicionimportaunaaplicacionparalospaisesdeamericalatina AT descalziricardo lasvariablescomercialesylasreversionesdecuentacorrientelaelecciondeladefinicionimportaunaaplicacionparalospaisesdeamericalatina AT diazcafferataalbertom lasvariablescomercialesylasreversionesdecuentacorrientelaelecciondeladefinicionimportaunaaplicacionparalospaisesdeamericalatina |