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Current account dynamics and the terms of trade : Harberger-Laursen-Metzler two generations later
This is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dinamycs in a samll open economy that is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates. Anticipated and unanticipated, as well as temporary and permanent, terms-of-trade changes...
This is a study of the current account dynamics resulting from the savings and investment dinamycs in a samll open economy that is subject to exogenous changes in its terms of trade and in world interest rates. Anticipated and unanticipated, as well as temporary and permanent, terms-of-trade changes have very different effects. There is, however, a general tendency toward cycles in both savings and investment, which gives rise to cycles in the current account. It is shown that the classic Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect on savig of a terms-of-trade deterioration can have any sign for plausible parameter values, both for temporary and permanent disturbanses.
